Dressing a wounded economy

The two major tools that the government has available before it are monetary policy and fiscal actions

26/03/2020

C. Rangarajan

The impact of the coranavirus pandemic is now felt by almost every country. First, there are the health effects of the virus, and second is the economic impact of the various actions that have to be taken to combat the virus. The world is experiencing an additional slowdown on top of the contracting tendencies already present and India is no exception. The economic impact on India can be traced through four channels: external demand; domestic demand; supply disruptions, and financial market disturbances.

External, domestic demand

As the economies of the developed countries slow down (some people are even talking of recession), their demand for imports of goods will go down and this will affect our exports which are even now not doing well. In fact after six months of negative growth, it was only in January that Indian exports showed positive growth. The extent of decline will depend on how severely the other economies are affected. Not only merchandise exports but also service exports will suffer. Besides these, the IT industry, travel, transport and hotel industries will be affected. The only redeeming feature in the external sector is the fall in oil prices. India’s oil import bill will come down substantially. But this will affect adversely the oil exporting countries which absorb Indian labour. Remittances may slow down.

To ward off the spread of the coronavirus, the government has declared a lockdown of the country. As passengers travel less, the transportation industry, road, rail and air, is cutting down schedules, sometimes drastically. This will affect in turn several other sectors closely related to them. The laying off of non-permanent employees has already started. As people in general buy less, shops stock less, which in turn affects production. Perhaps retail units will be first to be affected and they will in turn transmit this to the production units. One is unable to make an estimate of the reduction in economic activity at this point. If the situation is not reversed soon, there can be a serious decline in the growth rate during 2020-21.

Supply disruptions can occur because of the inability to import or procure inputs. The break in supply chains can be severe. It is estimated that nearly 60% of our imports is in the category of ‘intermediate goods’. Imports from countries which are affected by the virus can be a source of concern. Domestic supply chain can also be affected as the inter-State movement of goods has also slowed down.

Financial market issues

Financial markets are the ones which respond quickly and irrationally to a pandemic such as the coronavirus pandemic. The entire reaction is based on fear. The stock market in India has collapsed. The indices are at a three-year low. Foreign Portfolio Investors have shown great nervousness and the safe haven doctrine operates. In this process, the value of the rupee in terms of dollar has also fallen. The stock market decline has a wealth affect and will have an impact on the behaviour of particularly high wealth holders.

How does the government deal with this sudden decline in economic activity which has come at a time when the economy is not doing well? The two major tools that are available are monetary policy and fiscal actions.

Monetary policy in a situation like this can only act to stimulate demand by a greater push of liquidity and credit. The policy rate has already beenbrought down by 135 basis points over the last several months. There is obviously scope for further reduction. But our own history as well as the experience of other countries clearly show that beyond a point, a reduction in interest rates does not work. It is the environment of the overall economy that counts. Credit may be available. But there may not be takers. You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink. Any substantial reduction of policy rate can also affect savers. Interest is a double-edged sword.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) needs to go beyond cutting policy rate. A certain amount of regulatory forbearance is required to make the banks lend. Even commercial banks on their own will have to think in terms of modifying norms they use for inventory holding by production units. Repayments to banks can be delayed and the authorities must be willing to relax the rules. Any relaxation of rules regarding the recognition of non-performing assets has to be across the entire business sector. The authorities must be ready to tighten the rules as soon as the situation improves. This is a temporary relaxation and must be seen as such by banks and borrowers.

Fiscal actions have a major role to play. Once again, the ability to play a big role is constrained by the fact that the fiscal position of the government of India is already difficult. Even without the pandemic, the fiscal deficit of the Central government will turn out to be higher than that indicated in the budgets for 2019-20 and 2020-21. Revenues are likely to go down further because of the virus related slowdown in economic activity.

In this context, the ability to undertake big ticket expenditures is constrained. But there are some ‘musts’. The virus has to be fought and brought down. All expenditures to test (there is some concern that the extent of testing that we are doing now is low) and to take care of patients must be incurred. Now that private hospitals are allowed to test, the cost of the people going to private hospitals must also be met by the government. The involvement of private hospitals has become necessary. It is mentioned that a test costs ₹4,500. The total cost can be substantial if the numbers to be tested run in the thousands and more. This may sound exaggerated. But we must be prepared so that we avoid the tragedy of Italy. Therefore, the first priority is to mobilise adequate resources to meet all health related expenditures which includes the supply of accessories such as masks, sanitisers and materials for tests. The challenge is not only fiscal but also organisational.

The job sector

Serious concerns have been expressed about people who have been thrown out of employment. These are mostly daily-wage earners and non-permanent/temporary employees. In fact some of the migrant labour have gone back to home States. We must appeal to the business units to keep even non-permanent workers on their rolls and provide them with a minimal income. Some relief can be thought of by the government for such business units even though this can be misused. However, in general, in the case of sectors such as hospitality and travel, the government can extend relief through deferment of payments of dues to the government.

There is also talk of providing cash transfer to individuals. There is already a programme for rural farmers with all the limitations. For a system of cash transfer to be workable, it has to be universal. At this moment when all the energies of the government are required to combat the virus, to institute a system of universal cash transfer will be a diversion of efforts. The burden on the government will depend upon the quantum of per capita cash transfer and the length of the period.

As mentioned earlier, the government should advise all business units not to retrench workers and provide some relief to them to maintain the workers. A supplemental income scheme for all the poor can be thought of once the immediate problem is resolved. Provision of food and other essentials must be made available to the affected as is done at the time of floods or drought. States must take the initiative.

The fiscal deficit is bound to go up substantially. The higher borrowing programme will need the support of the RBI if the interest rate is to be kept low. Monetisation of deficit is inevitable. The strong injection of liquidity will store up problems for the next year. Inflation can flare up. The government needs to be mindful of this. All the same, the government must not stint and go out in a massive way to combat the virus. This is the government’s first priority.

C. Rangarajan is Former Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister and Former Governor, Reserve Bank of India

Railways cancels all trains till April 14

26/03/2020,NEW DELHI

The Railways have announced the cancellation of all passenger trains, mail, express, suburban trains and trains of the metro rail up to April 14, in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. However, freight operations would continue, the Railways said in an official statement. The Railway Board has also announced the suspension of bookings for all types of journeys till April 14. E-ticketing facilities for booking of reserved tickets for journey after April 14 will be available online.

Government college teachers to donate day’s salary to State

Decision taken to tackle spread of COVID-19

26/03/2020, STAFF REPORTER,CHENNAI

The Tamil Nadu Government College Teachers’ Association (TNGCTA) has decided to donate a day’s salary of all its members to the State government for its fight against COVID-19.

T. Veeramani, president, TNGCTA, said that the association had more than 5,000 members. “Tamil Nadu and the entire country is facing a health and economic crisis of an unprecedented nature. Hence, we decided unanimously to make the contribution,” he said.He added that the association was sending a letter to the CM and the Higher Education Minister to take steps to deduct a day’s salary from its members.S. Suresh, joint secretary (general), TNGCTA, said that the association was willing to fully cooperate with the government in fighting the contagion.

Doctor shuts down clinic in rural Sivaganga

‘Establishment lacks modern facilities’

26/03/2020, S. SUNDAR,MADURAI

In the wake of COVID-19, a retired government doctor has closed down his private clinic in a village near Tirupattur in Sivaganga district.

A notice board outside the house of M. Sheik Davooth, who retired as professor of pharmacology from Pudukkottai Government Medical College, says he has gone into self-quarantine along with his family members since Tuesday.

Since his rural clinic does not have any modern facility, he decided to close it down, he says.

“I am not able to identify people falling under category B among patients coming to my hospital. These are people who could have come into contact with those who have infection. Besides, some with infection can be asymptomatic. And some infected with the virus will not have any symptoms in the initial stage.”

The physician says he gets around 40 to 60 patients every day with all kinds of minor ailments such as cough, cold and fever.

“My hospital does not have space to maintain social distancing. This can put everyone’s health at risk. Besides, masks and sanitisers are also not available freely in the market.”

Train reaches destination without a single passenger

Vivek Express rolls into Kanniyakumari after 81 hours of travel through 7 States

26/03/2020, S. VIJAY KUMAR ,CHENNAI

Vivek Express entering an empty Kanyakumari railway station, after completing four days of journey, on Wednesday.

It started on the night of March 22, barely hours before the ‘Janata Curfew’ called by Prime Minister Narendra Modi came into force and continued its journey for the next four days, traversing seven States across the country to reach its destination in the southern tip of India.

Though the train had about 50% occupancy during most of its journey, it reached its last station Kanniyakumari without any passenger. About 250 passengers, including women and children, were deboarded at Palghat and quarantined at Government Victoria College there. However, when contacted, a Southern Railway spokesperson said some passengers were allowed to travel beyond Palghat. As a nationwide lockdown also dawned on Kanniyakumari, train No. 15906 Vivek Express rolled in empty. The train, the longest travelling express in the country, was the last in the railway network to complete its journey on Wednesday, as the Ministry of Railways extended the cancellation of all passenger services till the midnight of April 14, 2020, in the wake of COVID-19. The weekly train started at 11.05 pm at Dibrugarh in Assam on March 21 and took 81 hours and 36 minutes to cover a distance of 4,205 km to reach Kanniyakumari four days later. Despite the threat of COVID-19, people boarded the train at the last minute to reach home, sources said. “The Kerala government is taking care of screening, food and other logistics for them. Most of the passengers belong to Tamil Nadu…we are not sure how long they will be quarantined there,” an official told The Hindu.

Villupuram GH turned into COVID-19 hospital

26/03/2020,VILLUPURAM

The Villupuram Government General Hospital has been converted into a special facility for treating COVID-19 patients, Law Minister C.Ve. Shanmugam said. The Health Department had set up a 100-bed isolation facility in Villupuram Government Medical College and Hospital. Three patients were under quarantine. The throat swabs of two of them had tested negative while the result was awaited for the third, he said.

One major private hospital in a block to be a COVID-19 facility

26/03/2020, RAMYA KANNAN,CHENNAI

Outlining the strategy to be adopted in the private sector to manage the COVID-19 outbreak, Health Minister C. Vijayabaskar said the government was exploring the idea of taking one major hospital in a block — with 200 to 300 patients — and converting it into a specialised unit to treat SARS-CoV-2 patients.

“We are planning to do this in order to not expose other patients in hospitals to the infection. Not all hospitals in the private sector may have facilities that will allow for isolation, segregation and be able to follow the stringent protocols that we specify. So we have decided to take one major hospital in each block, in tier 1, 2 and 3 cities and have them take all cases, as and when necessary,” he said.

He held meetings with hospital representatives in the city, including those from MIOT Hospital, MGM, Saveetha, Fortis Malar, Billroth, Kauvery and Dr. Rela Institute and Medical Centre. All private hospitals expressed their willingness to co-operate with the State government.

Air India carries medical supplies

27/03/2020,NEW DELHI

Air India carried the first bulk consignment of face masks and medical equipment from Mumbai to New Delhi on Thursday as the focus in the aviation sector shifts to transport of essential medical supplies after the ban on passenger flights. Air India operated its Boeing 787 Dreamliner, which landed in Delhi at 4 p.m. on Thursday, with 6.5 tonnes of cargo, according to the airline’s spokesperson. The airline has only passenger aircraft in its fleet and carries cargo in the aircraft’s belly which has limited capacity as compared to freight aircraft.

SpiceJet to ferry 142 Iran returnees to Jodhpur

27/03/2020,NEW DELHI

SpiceJet on Thursday said it would operate a special flight from Delhi to Jodhpur on Friday to ferry 142 Indians evacuated from Iran to a quarantine facility there. The airline said in a statement that it would deploy its Boeing 737 aircraft for the service, which is being run at the request of the government. The passengers will reach New Delhi on a Mahan Air flight. The SpiceJet flight will take off from New Delhi at 1.40 a.m. and land in Jodhpur at 2.55 a.m. on Friday. The Army has set up one of its quarantine facilities in Jodhpur for Indians returning from abroad.

Pay and accounts units to ensure salaries on time

27/03/2020,NEW DELHI

Although work in government offices not engaged in essential services has come to a standstill, their pay and accounts divisions are functioning to ensure that the employees get salaries on time. “The pending salaries of contractual workers are also being cleared by supervisory officers on a priority basis,” said an official in the Income Tax Department. In an addendum to the guidelines for the lockdown, the Home Ministry exempted the Pay & Accounts Offices, apart from the field offices of the Controller-General of Accounts, with a bare minimum staff.

Patna govt. doctors seek home quarantine

27/03/2020

“We’re on duty without all necessary kits and masks, which makes many of us vulnerable to infection...many of us have developed symptoms of COVID-19...but nobody is here to listen us,” said Ravi Ranjan Kumar Raman, president of the NMCH Junior Doctors Association.

“We face acute shortage of PPE kits, N-95 masks and other necessary protective gear ...we’re still waiting for these to come... till then we’re left to serve and die here,” they alleged.

On March 23, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had announced a monetary incentive equal to one month basic salary for doctors and paramedical staff for their contribution to fighting COVID-19. However, the junior doctors have written to the government to “utilise the money to provide them PPE kits and N-95 masks.”

The United Resident & Doctors Association of India has drawn the attention of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a letter written on March 25, to the plight of the NMCH junior doctors.

“A recent incidence of Nalanda Medical College in Patna, Bihar has been brought to our notice where 83 resident doctors who had history of exposure to positive patients are now having symptoms and are suspected of being positive. No tests have been done, nor the said doctors have been quarantined which may complicate the situation. We request you to kindly direct authorities not to ignore such grievous situations,” the letter said.

Rate of spread has slowed relatively: govt.

27/03/2020

“The National Institute of Mental Health and Neuro-Sciences (NIMHANS) has been roped in to provide behavioural health modules while training is being offered to ASHAs and grassroots-level health workers to educate, help in surveillance and assist with care of patients,” said Mr. Agarwal.

Stating that this is the biggest challenge that country faces Mr. Agarwal said the “mistake of even a single individual not complying with the rules laid down by the government could prove costly for him and his family.”

He said there is no evidence of this so far and added that India is still not registering any community transmission.

Joint Secretary, Home Ministry Punya Salila Srivastava, said measures have been put in place to ensure the regular supply of essential goods and health services to even remote area of India with special flight to northeast.

Head of Epidemiology, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) Raman Gangakhedkar, said the Council had not still felt the need to test all health care workers and that there is no trend to indicate that elderly in India are at added risk.

“We have further increased our laboratory strength by roping in 25 private labs. They have nearly 20,000 collection centres. However, testing has not been majorly expanded as these labs are still getting their testing kits and also we don’t have the numbers yet to press all of them into action.”

The number of cases in Gujarat increased to 44 on Thursday, officials said.

PMO calls for daily virus updates

Union Ministers allotted States to oversee measures to combat COVID-19

27/03/2020, NISTULA HEBBAR,NEW DELHI

Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday directed several of his Cabinet colleagues to take up the responsibility of coordination between the States and the Centre in the fight against the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The move comes on Day Two of the nationwide lockdown even as disruptions in supply chains and anxieties with regard to migrant workers being left destitute across cities in India were widely reported.

Ministers in charge of various States have been told to speak to the District Magistrate (DM) of every district and keep themselves and the Prime Ministers Office (PMO), Union Home and Health Ministries updated.

“Monitoring will be done every day and the PMO will be kept updated daily as well. This would include keeping track of the number of positive cases in a district, number of those quarantined, how many people were under home quarantine, how many people had arrived in the district from outside, whether there are any hiccups in supply of essential commodities, what was the state of testing and whether enough supplies were there for testing,” said a senior source.

Ministers assigned

Under the plan, Water Resources Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat has been given charge of Rajasthan; Minister of State for Road Transport V.K. Singh of Assam; Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Mahendranath Pandey and Kishan Pal Gujjar of Uttar Pradesh; Highways and Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari and Information Minister Prakash Javadekar of Maharashtra; Dharmendra Pradhan of Odisha; Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi of Jharkhand; Arjun Munda of Chhattisgarh; and Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad and Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan t of Bihar.

Minister of State in the PMO Jitender Singh will be in charge of 22 districts in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

Congress backs govt. steps: Sonia

In letter to PM, she offers suggestions

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT,NEW DELHI

Sonia Gandhi

Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Thursday wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, expressing solidarity with his call for a 21-day lockdown to fight COVID-19 and offering some sector-specific suggestions.

“It has imperilled lives and put at risk the lives and livelihoods of millions, particularly, the most vulnerable sections of our society. The entire nation stands as one in solidarity in the fight to halt and defeat the Corona pandemic,” she said in a letter.

Ms. Gandhi said, “As president of the Indian National Congress, I would like to state that we will support and collaborate fully with every step taken by the Union government to ensure the containment of the pandemic. At this challenging and uncertain time, it is imperative for each one of us to rise above partisan interests and honour our duty towards our country and indeed, towards humanity.”

Ms. Gandhi also offered some suggestions in the spirit of “solidarity and cooperation” for the “massive health crisis we are about to face and to ameliorate the immense economic and existential pain that vulnerable sections of our society will soon be subjected to.”

“I would like to re-emphasise the urgent need to arm our doctors, nurses and health workers with ‘personal protection equipment’,” she said. “Let us ensure the opening and scaling up of manufacture and supply of these items so that not a single health professional faces the predicament of contracting or passing on COVID-19 owing to unavailability of ‘personal protection equipment’. Announcing a special ‘Risk Allowance’ for doctors, nurses and health workers for a period of six months retrospectively from the 1st of March 2020, is imperative.”

Over the last few weeks, there had been much uncertainty about designated hospitals and their locations, number of beds, isolation chambers, ventilators, dedicated medical teams, medical supplies, among others.

Harvesting season

Since the lockdown came just ahead of the harvesting season by March-end and nearly 60% of India’s population being economically dependent on agriculture, the government should take steps to enable harvesting and procurement of crops at minimum support price and suspend all recoveries from farmers for next six months, she said.

The government should either implement the Minimum Income Guarantee Scheme or the ‘NYAY Yojana’, as was proposed by the Congress, or consider a one-time cash payment.

First step in the right direction, says Rahul

But Congress hopes that the government will offer more

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT,NEW DELHI

The Congress cautiously welcomed the ₹1.7-lakh crore package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi called it the “first” step in the right direction, but criticised the government for offering an insufficient cash transfer.

In a series of tweets, former Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram called it a “modest plan” and hoped that the government would realise that it should do more.

“The plan does not put enough cash in the pockets of the poor. Some sections have been left out altogether,” he said. “You will notice that suggestions like help to tenant farmers and destitute, maintaining current levels of employment and wages, tax deferment, EMI deferment, GST rate cut, etc. have not been addressed. Let’s hope there will be a Plan II shortly,” he said. Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Surjewala pointed to many “lapses” in the package. He flagged the need for declaring grain procurement an essential service.

“If the farmer is to delay harvesting till April 14, he will stand to lose 40% of the crop. A loss from which he will never recover,” he said.

Paltry sum

The one-time cash help of ₹1,500 spread over three months to 20.4 crore women having Jan Dhan Yojana accounts was a paltry sum, he said. The Congress demanded waiver of all EMIs and the interest thereof for all salaried class up to June 30.

CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury said the package was inadequate and missed out on migrant workers. He said if the government could airlift Indians from foreign shores, it should have given these workers food and shelter or transport to their home States. He also criticised the government for offering just one kg of pulses a family.

He said the government had uprooted the lives of people, despite a warning two months ago.

CPI general secretary D. Raja said the package had ignored the poorest of the poor.

How can India contain the economic impact of COVID-19?

The government must focus on health and livelihood issues at the same time

27/03/2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has effectively brought normal life to a halt in India. The importance of social distancing and a lockdown in curbing the spread of the virus cannot be stressed enough, but these measures also have huge repercussions on livelihoods and the economy at large, which has already been seeing a slowdown over the past year. In a conversation moderated by Vikas Dhoot, Naushad Forbes and M. Govinda Rao talk of ways in which India can tackle this humanitarian and economic crisis. Edited excerpts:

Do you see a parallel in recent history to the situation we face globally due to the novel coronavirus?

Govinda Rao: This is the mother of all challenges in recent memory. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that the 2008 financial crisis comes close, but I think this is much bigger than that. Possibly, one has to go to the times of the Great Depression. Even qualitatively, it’s a very different challenge, because first you have to save lives, then you have to save livelihoods, then you have to meet with other costs like loss of jobs and production, and supply chain disruptions. It’s not just confined to one sector or country; it encompasses the entire economy and the world. So, I think there is no immediate policy instrument that you can put in place because you don’t even know how long the problem will last. The depth of the problem that you are going to face is dependent on the length of the period for which you are going to close down and the extent to which the virus spreads.

Naushad Forbes: Every country is either already deeply affected or is at the start of being more affected. This is unprecedented in terms of its immediate impact on the lives of individuals from all walks of life. We have a few additional factors in India: an economy which relies very heavily on informal employment, so our reliance for people’s well-being on the broader economy performing and the markets performing is high, whatever role the state may try to play. And anything that you change in the functioning of the economy has unintended effects.

We sometimes have, I think, a tendency to act and then plan. I worry about that. For example, on Saturday, all manufacturing companies in Pune were told to shut down. On Sunday, all trains were stopped. And on Monday, all companies were told, ‘Look, you must keep supporting your staff and contract workers.’ Now, the sequence should have been the reverse: first, you work out which companies will ensure support for everyone across the board and how. Then you stop the trains so that you contain populations [moving]. And then you close the actual sources of employment. If you do it in the opposite sequence, you end up with what we saw on Saturday and Sunday, which is thousands of people crowding into train and bus stations, heading out of town, potentially spreading the virus across the country. This is obviously an unintended consequence. We sometimes act first without going into what we actually want to achieve. The way to achieve ‘social distancing’ is not to announce something which then brings suddenly crowds of people together in a panic [but] to do something for their own security, well-being and longer-term success. A little bit of thought before we act would really help.

Over the last few days, both the formal and informal sector have come to to a virtual halt. Lakhs of truckers are held up across States and most manufacturing firms have shut down. How will this impact our output and incomes?

NF: Everything’s come to a halt. The lockdown is the right thing to do for the country. From everything one reads, [we get the idea that] a lockdown is the way to ensure social distancing and contain the virus.

How do you then limit the economic impact and who do you need to buffer the impact for? Without question, it is the people who are most vulnerable, those who live from day to day and have no savings to fall back on. Then you look at medium to small companies with very limited staying power. The only way they can actually survive is by not paying people. You don’t want that to happen, otherwise you’d spread that distress in the economy. You need to address their concerns, either through moratoriums on principal and interest payments or direct salary support, as we’ve seen happen in the U.K., Switzerland and France, to ensure some employment is sustained. Then you need to extend it to larger labour-intensive companies if they employ 20,000 people and if they don’t have enough money to pay salaries next month we’re going to see something rather critical happen within a week.

GR: One of the biggest problems in the system is the capacity of the state to deal with the problem. The reaction that we have is a knee-jerk reaction. Today, you cannot worry about issues such as fiscal deficit. You have to save people’s lives. There is a 21-day lockdown and redistribution is a major issue. Thankfully, you have a much better targeting device [Jan-Dhan accounts and Aadhaar] than before. Augmenting the state’s capacity... I don’t know how you’re going to do it.

At 8 p.m., the Prime Minister says we are closing down for 21 days, and everyone runs to the shops and panics. Couldn’t this have been done in a smoother way? One could have said essential supplies will be available — simply saying there’s a lakshman rekha outside your house, that really scares people.

The immediate issue is to focus on health, which we have never done, and see how you can establish the public health system. And the second is livelihood issues.

Regulatory compliance deadlines have been extended, but non-performing asset recognition norms remain 90 days (of defaults). Would you say this regulatory forbearance is sufficient?

NF: It’s a classic case of ‘necessary but not sufficient’. These are all the right things to do. You can have regulatory forbearance and extend regulatory forbearance for returns that have to be filed, but if there is some question on whether you will survive long enough to file your returns, then you need to address that.

If we start by recognising that we have very limited state capacity, then we can think about how to get the desired outcome with an assumption of limited state capacity. For example, I would like to see a massive publicity campaign on what social distancing means and why it’s important to do. Regardless of what announcement comes, people should know not to crowd outside a shop together.

And if my action in announcing something is going to prompt just this, let me first send out all the reassurances that grocery stores will be open. The government has said that, but if you read the actual notification, it doesn’t say how groceries will get to homes. There are some vague references to it being delivered. That sounds to me like a horrendous task to take on if state capacity is limited... delivering groceries to 1.3 billion people. Instead, rely on people going and doing the right thing. So, you say, ‘grocery stores are going to be open and here are the rules under which people can go and buy groceries. Grocery stores can decide for themselves if they wish to be open 24 hours. We will allow a maximum of so many people per square foot. We are counting on the grocery stores themselves to maintain this for their own health. We will encourage everyone not to go in a group.’ You can specify all of this ahead of time and reassure people that there’s going to be no issue.

There has been a lot of clamour for shutting down the stock markets.

GR: A lot of things can now be done at home with online trading. To the extent that crowds can be avoided, it is important. But that doesn’t mean that you should shut down the stock market. It is a barometer... in the immediate context, it may not tell you what your economy’s doing if something is happening the world over. But you don’t kill the messenger, it gives you a message.

Three weeks from now, what would be the best-case scenario for us to be in?

NF: We should, by the way, do some scenario planning for what’s the best- and worst-case scenario and what’s in between. For those scenarios, we must have action plans in place that are transparent so people can prepare accordingly. The best-case scenario to me is that the three-week lockdown delivers. We shouldn’t expect the rising trend of cases to change for a minimum of 10 days before a successful lockdown can have an effect (because of the gestation of the virus). The best-case scenario is that 10 days from now, we start seeing a flattening of the growth rate. A few more days later, we see the curve starting to turn down. Then we can say the lockdown is working, now how do we start working towards recovery. We should put those plans in place now.

We will not go back to normal from day one, where everyone can do whatever they wished. Can all manufacturing start again? Does everyone show up at work all at once? If you have the curve pointing down sharply, maybe 50% can come back and we’ll see for another two or three weeks how that sustains. Shops can open again, but with limited operations and all the social distancing in place. You probably should not allow anything which involves mass gatherings of people even in the best-case scenario. So, you’re not going to have large conferences, movie theatres, sports stadiums. Those will come last. I really think there’s a lot of value in this plan being as transparent as possible.

GR: The first thing that the government will have to do immediately is massively ramp up testing. We have not done enough testing as yet and do not know the magnitude of the problem. Even if you take the best-case scenario after three weeks, this will be different in different places. You may have to look at differential relaxations in a calibrated and transparent manner and say that areas with these trends can allow some of these activities. My own feeling is that after 21 days, there will be some areas where you can have economic activities without much movement, and restrictions will have to continue elsewhere. But we should be prepared for the long haul. Life is not going to be easy.

My big concern is about children not going to school. Some from well-off families may learn on the computer, but what about those children who cannot go to school, can’t play, or do anything. About 40% of the population is in the age group of zero to 14. We really have a crisis brewing there.

Standing with the needy

The relief package is a good start, but more might need to be done sooner than later

27/03/2020

The ₹1,70,000 crore relief package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday — Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) — is a good first step towards alleviating the distress caused to vulnerable sections of the population by the 21-day lockdown imposed to combat the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). 

What is noteworthy about the package is not the amount but the innovative ways in which the government is seeking to offer relief. It covers various sections of the vulnerable, ranging from farmers and women Jan Dhan account holders, to organised sector workers, to the most important of all — healthcare workers, who will now get a sizeable insurance cover of ₹50 lakh. The doubling of foodgrain allocation offered free is a good idea that privileges the hungry poor over rodents and pests devouring the stocks in Food Corporation of India godowns. So is the move to provide free cooking gas refills to the underprivileged who are part of the PM Ujjwala scheme. 

The offer to pay both employer and employee contributions to the Provident Fund for very small business enterprises is welcome and will offer relief to those businesses that have been forced to shut down operations, and also to employees earning small salaries for whom the PF deduction may hurt at this point in time. The salary limit could have been set higher at ₹25,000 per month — there’s no cash outgo for the government anyway because this is just a book entry transaction.

The effort appears to be to keep the funding within the budget as much as possible and retain control over the deficit. For instance, the PM Kisan transfer has been already budgeted for and the increase in MGNREGA wages can also be accommodated within the budget. Ditto with the Jan Dhan account transfer of ₹500 per month for the next three months which will cost the government ₹30,450 crore. It is possible to argue here that the transfer could have been a little more generous — at least ₹1,000 a month. The government may have wanted to stay within the budget for now. It could also be to preserve firepower, as there is no saying how long this uncertainty will last. But, at some point soon, the government will have to break the fiscal deficit shackles. 

Also, it needs the financial bandwidth to support businesses in trouble. In fact, ideally the government ought to have announced a relief package for the corporate sector and the middle class along with the PMGKY. It should now turn its focus towards businesses that are running out of cash and may soon default on even salaries and statutory commitments if relief is not given. There are enough ideas to borrow from others such as the U.S. which is in the process of finalising a $2 trillion package. Part II of the economic relief package should not be delayed beyond the next couple of days.

Kerala prisoner dies after drinking sanitiser

27/03/2020,PALAKKAD

A remand prisoner died at a hospital in Kerala’s Palakkad district on Thursday after allegedly drinking sanitiser which he mistook for alcohol, officials said. Ramankutty was admitted to the district hospital on Tuesday after he collapsed inside the prison. “We suspect that he drank a bottle of sanitiser manufactured on the jail premises,” an official said. PTI

Action against landlords asking doctors, paramedics to vacate

Officials asked to submit reports on such cases

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT,BENGALURU

Following complaints that landlords and owners are asking doctors and paramedical staff to vacate their houses, the government has directed all district, city, and police authorities to initiate strict action against such people under relevant provisions of the law.

In a Government Order issued on Thursday, officials have also been asked to submit action-taken report daily to the office of the Additional Chief Secretary in the Home Department.

Additional Chief Secretary (Health and Family Welfare and Medical Education) Jawaid Akhtar said in the order, “We have received a lot of complaints from doctors, paramedical staff, and other health workers. The behaviour of landlords and house owners amounts to obstructing public servants in discharging duties. In this context, the government of Karnataka has issued the Karnataka Epidemic Disease (COVID-19) Regulations, 2020 under the Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897 and Hyderabad Infectious Disease Act, 1950 for prevention and containment of COVID-19.”

Meanwhile, doctors and healthcare professionals are irked that although they are braving all odds to attend to patients during this crisis, people are treating them with disregard.

Expressing displeasure over the attitude by some house owners, U.S. Vishal Rao, chief of Head Neck Surgical Oncology and Robotic Surgery at Healthcare Global Cancer Centre, said the medical fraternity is going out on one limb to serve society. “In this hour of need, we need support from society. We have distanced ourselves from our family as we have put our life at risk. Society should stand behind us,” he said.

Speed at which virus is spreading is shocking, says researcher

According to her, one of the reasons is presence of spike protein in the virus and its affinity to ACE2 receptors in human cells

27/03/2020, STAFF REPORTER,CHENNAI

Pavithra Venkatagopalan

Chennaiite Pavithra Venkatagopalan, who holds a Ph.D. from Arizona State University (ASU) in the U.S., where her research focused on coronaviruses, was someone who was never active on social media.

“I took my privacy seriously and all my social media accounts have stringent privacy settings,” she says. However, today, her interviews busting misconceptions and highlighting preventive measures about COVID-19 have become popular in Tamil Nadu on messaging and social media platforms.

She says the misinformation that were getting virally circulated forced her to speak out on COVID-19. “People were drinking cow urine. It is one thing to consume whatever one wants to, but it is extremely absurd to claim that it prevents a disease,” she says.

Her first talk was at the meeting of a Rotary Club chapter she is part of. Her father, who saw her presentation, asked her to do the same for his college alumni group. A person, who attended that talk, in turn made her speak at a meeting organised by the Tamil Nadu Science Forum (TNSF).

The video of her talk at TNSF was noticed by few journalists and calls from the media asking her to talk about the pandemic has not stopped ever since.

Ms. Pavithra, a B.Tech graduate in Biotechnology from Alagappa College of Technology, is now the Director of Care Health Diagnostic Center. Admitting that she has always been a nerd, she says that it was her fascination with viruses that led her to pursue a Ph.D from the Biodesign Institute in ASU.

“Everyone studying viruses will have their own favourites and their reasons for the fascination. What attracted me to the family of coronaviruses, of which the present COVID-19-causing SARS-CoV-2 virus is a strain, was its ability to make RNAs without DNAs,” she says.

Explaining that while the synthesising of RNAs happened in most organisms through an enzyme called DNA-directed RNA polymerase, it happened in coronaviruses (similar to few other viruses) through RNA-dependent RNA polymerase since they are single-stranded RNA viruses that lacked DNAs.

Studying E proteins

Her specific research was in studying the E proteins, one of the three proteins along with the spike protein and the membrane protein that created the envelope of the virus. “My doctoral thesis was about tweaking the E proteins and studying its impact on the assembly of the virus and consequently how it reacts with the host cells,” she says. On whether she expected a strain of her favourite family of viruses to wreak havoc with a pandemic of this scale, she says never. “Those studying viruses always know the threat they pose to humanity. However, the speed at which SARS-CoV-2 is spreading, in comparison to the strains that caused SARS and MERS, is shocking,” she adds.

According to her, one of the reasons was the presence of the spike protein in the virus and its affinity to the ACE2 receptors in human cells. “Since there is a strong binding with the ACE2 receptors, the virus is able to infect and multiply even with a small number of them entering the human body,” she says.

Advocating strongly for the personal distancing, personal hygiene and respiratory hygiene measures recommended by the government, she expresses hope that these measures along with the research happening at a breathtaking speed about vaccine and antiviral medicines for COVID-19 will help us overcome this pandemic in the near future.

“In the roughly three months since the human transmission began, we have known far more about this virus than we knew about other viruses in such a short span of time,” she says.

Game changer

She adds that rapid testing kits, being developed by many companies including at least one in India, which can give instant results and thereby allowing the possibility of testing more people, can also be a game changer on how we tackle this disease.

NEET toppers’ diary launched

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT,CHENNAI

A diary with handwritten notes by NEET toppers has been compiled and is proposed to be given free of cost to NEET aspirants.

Amma Kalviyagam has launched the Toppers’ Diary Handwritten Notes which is aimed at helping students preparing for the test scheduled for May 3.

The 600-page diary is a compilation of concepts, formulae and notes jotted down by NEET toppers and can be downloaded on www.ammakalviyagam.in.

Love in the time of lockdown

Youth jumps quarantine, elopes, only to be nabbed and brought back to the facility

27/03/2020, S. SUNDAR, ,MADURAI

A 23-year-old man who returned from Dubai a few days back and was quarantined at a government facility near here, escaped from there to meet his lady love in a remote village on Wednesday.

“Probably those around him mistook him for a sanitary worker as he was sporting a mask,” a police officer said.

The man who walked to the Inner Ring Road hitch-hiked on a two-wheeler towards his village in Sivaganga district.

Midway home, he was picked up by his relative and taken to the village.

The police say the unskilled labourer had come to India only to marry his lady love as her parents had arranged her marriage with another person on March 30.

Despite the lockdown and vigil of family members in the village, the man managed to bring the girl out of her residence with the help of his friends and they eloped.

Meanwhile, a health official at the quarantine home lodged a complaint with the Madurai City police and a team of police and health officials nabbed him at a hideout and brought him back to the quarantine facility.

“The man claims that he has married the girl,” a police officer said.

The girl has been handed over to her parents.

E-commerce companies allowed, ban on food delivery apps remains

Cooperative societies, provisions stores can deliver goods home

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT

A review meeting chaired by the Chief Minister has cleared e-commerce deliveries. File Photo

The State government on Thursday, after a review meeting by Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami, said e-commerce companies such as Grofers, Amazon, Big Basket, Flipkart and Dunzo have already been allowed to deliver provisions and medicines.

“Other companies, cooperative societies and provisional stores are allowed to deliver essential commodities in their respective areas,” an official release stated. However, the ban on food delivery apps Zomato and Swiggy would continue.

Depending on the prevailing situation in their respective districts, Collectors could take steps for distributing financial assistance and essential supplies at the doorstep of beneficiaries if necessary, but asked not to collect thumb impressions during such exercises.

“The movement of agricultural produce to companies and markets and agricultural labourers is allowed. The movement of cattle, poultry, fish, eggs and cattle feed is also allowed and they can contact the helpline: 044-28447701, 044-28447703,” it stated. Emergency helpline ‘108’ (also for ambulance services) could be called by elderly persons, patients, pregnant women, quarantined families and those with dialysis.

The Chief Minister, who also held a videoconference with District Collectors to review the ground situation, directed them to set up help desks in the Greater Chennai Corporation and in each of the District Collector’s office to ensure supply of essential commodities.

He also stressed the importance of maintaining three feet physical distance in places such as provisions stores, medical shops and groceries. Habitations with dense population would have to be cleaned with disinfectants, he instructed.

Medicines must be supplied to pregnant women, patients with high blood pressure, diabetes and those with infections through hospitals for “two months”, the Chief Minister said.

Corpn. looks to put unused homes to use

Civic body in need of quarantine space

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT ,CHENNAI

The Corporation has launched a drive to create spaces for quarantine in each of its 15 zones.

According to data generated by the civic body, the space in government buildings in the city is limited, with less than 5,000 public buildings maintained by various civic agencies.

Chennai has more than 20,000 properties that remain vacant.

“Due to the need for more quarantine space as reserve security arrangements, an appeal has been made by the Greater Chennai Corporation administration to the general public to allow the use of unused homes, lodges and mansions with rooms for quarantine purposes,” said Corporation Commissioner G. Prakash.

‘Nation’s interest’

“This being the need of the hour, those who have such properties are requested to offer their services, in the interest of the nation,” he said.

The decision to request people for space was taken following a social media post by actor Parthiban to share such spaces with civic agencies.

“I have a few residential properties. I am willing to share the houses for containing COVID-19,” said Mr. Parthiban.

Corporation officials will regulate the use of such spaces for quarantine and handover the buildings to the owners after the spread of COVID-19 has been contained. Officials are also exploring options to use unsold houses in the city and suburbs for quarantine.

Police get tough with joyriders

Those found making unnecessary trips made to do squats, not allowed to proceed

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT ,CHENNAI

Grounded: Policemen locking wheels and taking away two-wheelers of violators in Chennai on Thursday. K. Pichumani and R. Ravindran

Faced with the task of implementing a curfew, the Tamil Nadu police often resorted to force across the State, on the second day of the total lockdown on Thursday.

Since Wednesday, people have been complaining of police high-handedness. But on their part, the police have pointed out people taking joy rides or unnecessary long trips on the pretext of buying groceries. Some people, on the other hand, said that they were making legitimate efforts to go out for medicines or groceries, but were not allowed to proceed. Video clippings showing people being forced to do squats did the rounds of social media.

On Wednesday evening, the police resorted to mild force and chased around 50 youngsters playing cricket in an open ground in Kancheepuram, despite prohibitory orders.

In Chidambaram, the police made a group of youngsters, playing cricket, do sit-ups. In Thiruvannamalai, the police made a few motorists do squats.

Wielding of lathis

Similarly, the Singanallur police in Coimbatore wielded lathis on motorists on Wednesday evening, drawing criticism from various quarters. A video of the police beating up motorists at the Singanallur traffic junction went viral on social media. Police high-handedness continued on Thursday.

In Madurai, a Railways Assistant Loco Pilot, who was going for railway duty, was fined by the traffic police at Goripalayam junction on Wednesday morning. Railway sources said that he was going to the railway junction to operate a light engine for a specific railway work.

In Koyambedu, the traffic police on Wednesday evening caught two youngsters, riding a motorcycle, and took away the vehicle’s keys. They were made to do squats for violating orders.

The city police chased people who were taking joy rides on their two-wheelers, in the western suburbs of the city.

A senior policeman said that youth were riding motorcycles from Tambaram, past the Central station, claiming that they had come out “to buy groceries”. The police said that they had regulated inter-zone movement of people, and for all essential needs, residents could shop in their own areas. They added that people travelling for medical emergencies would be allowed to pass, even across zones.

Skeletal staff keep Secretariat ticking

Personnel asked to take turns

27/03/2020, DENNIS S. JESUDASAN,CHENNAI

A few government employees have been asked to be present at the Secretariat to coordinate work related to COVID-19 response. S. R. RAGHUNATHANS_R_Raghunathan

Amidst the 21-day countrywide lockdown across the country in the fight against COVID-19, skeletal staff in the Secretariat have been keeping the machinery functioning at Fort St. George, the seat of power of the Tamil Nadu government. Special arrangements have been made for their transport.

In line with the detailed notification issued by the State government on Monday evening, the employees in several departments have been instructed to work on rotation in the Secretariat. Besides the Chief Minister and the Deputy Chief Minister, a few Ministers visited the Secretariat.

However, a section of the staff opined there was no need for skeletal staff in all departments but only in specific departments. “It will be better if only officials from Revenue and Health departments and the DIPR are allowed to work. Others can be exempted from coming to office because their departments are not related to COVID-19 at all and their coming to office should not make Secretariat a COVID-19 hotspot,” an official contended. While several employees in the Secretariat preferred to commute on their own vehicles, many officials who had been using public transport thanked the government for the special arrangements made for their transport.

Special buses

Two MTC buses have been pressed into service for their benefit from over 10 pick-up points to the Secretariat both in the mornings and evenings. “While one would start at 9 a.m., the next would start 30 minutes later. On our way back, one would start at 6 p.m. and another 30 minutes later," an official said.

Doctors, nurses cannot return home every day: circular

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT,CHENNAI

In a bid to protect healthcare providers from coronavirus disease (COVID-19), all deans and heads of government medical institutions have been asked to identify a team of doctors, staff nurses and paramedical staff to work in isolation wards on rotation for four to seven days.

In a circular to deans of medical college hospitals and joint directors of health services, the State’s Emergency Operation Control Room of the Health and Family Welfare Department, has said that persons with symptoms of COVID-19 were admitted and taken care of in government medical institutions. Medical and paramedical staff in these institutions were exposed to infection.

The heads of institutions were instructed to strictly adhere to certain guidelines while posting doctors and paramedics at isolation wards. A team of doctors, staff nurses and paramedical staff should preferably be identified to work on the trot for four to seven days in isolation wards in rotation. They will not be allowed to return home every day as there was a possibility of them spreading infection. So necessary arrangements for providing accommodation in any hostel/quarters on the hospital premises should be done for them during their duty at isolation wards.

Strict disinfection protocols should be followed in the places of stay. After their turn is over, a fresh team should be posted, the circular said.

Lockdown forces migrant workers to leg it home from Manesar

The 21-day lockdown has suddenly left several thousand workers in the informal sector without jobs and any means of sustenance

27/03/2020, ASHOK KUMAR,GURUGRAM

Such a long journey: Daily wage earners returning to their homes in Uttar Pradesh on foot from Manesar. Bibek Chettri

It is around 3 p.m. Carrying luggage on their backs and wearing black masks, seven men, visibly fatigued, are signalled to stop by a policeman who hurriedly jumps out of his vehicle at Rajiv Chowk on the Delhi-Gurugram highway. The officer makes a few inquiries before letting them off, asking them to walk in twos and threes and maintain a proper gap.

The men used to work as loaders at an automotive company in Bilaspur village in Manesar. But the nationwide lockdown to check the spread of the novel coronavirus, announced on March 24, has suddenly left them without jobs and little money to survive. Running out of money and with no means of support, the men, mostly from Shahjahanpur district in Uttar Pradesh, decided to walk close to 400 km back to their villages. When this reporter met them, they had been walking for six hours.

“Yeh hartal abhi kaafi din chalne wali hai. Hamare pass khane ka bhi paisa nahi bacha hai (This lockdown is going to last for quite a few days. We have no money left even for food),” said Ramesh, the eldest in the group. He says seven other workers also set off on foot for Uttar Pradesh but he has lost contact with them.

Ajit, another member of the group, said they had returned to work after Holi barely a week ago, having taken home their savings for the festival.

“We make ₹500 one day but earn just ₹50 the next day. The pay is not fixed. We have been without jobs for five straight days now and have exhausted our meagre savings,” he explained. Another worker Vijay said they did not have enough cash to pay the room rent, and some of them had not had food for the past 24 hours.

Deepak said they hoped to find some work in their villages since it is the harvest season; they can tend to livestock and be with their families in these testing times, he said.

Mr. Ramesh said policemen at several barricades stopped them, but let them off after questioning. He claimed no help had come from the administration or the automotive company they worked for.

“We hope to reach in at least five-six days,” he said with a straight face when asked how long it might take them to reach home.

The youngest in the group, his hair dyed maroon, smiled as he said he was from Nepal and had no clue how long it would take him to reach home.

₹1.7 lakh cr. lockdown package rolled out

Rations doubled for three months; we do not want anyone to remain hungry: Nirmala Sitharaman

27/03/2020, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT ,NEW DELHI

The Centre on Thursday announced a ₹1.7 lakh crore relief package in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and countrywide lockdown, providing free food and cash transfers to support the poorest and most vulnerable citizens during the crisis.

Announcing the details, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the foodgrain rations for 80 crore poor people would be doubled for the next three months and supplemented by 1 kg of local pulses.

Cover for health workers

The Centre will provide ₹50 lakh medical insurance cover for the next three months for about 22 lakh health workers in government hospitals, including ASHA (Accredited Social Health Activist) staff, medical sanitary workers in government hospitals, paramedics, nurses and doctors.

The Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana had been announced within 36 hours of the lockdown and it would take care of the needs of poor and migrant workers, farmers, women, pensioners, widows and the disabled, said Ms. Sitharaman.

“We do not want anyone to remain hungry, so we will be giving enough to take care of their foodgrain requirement, protein requirement in terms of pulses. On the other hand, they should also not remain without money in hand, so several measures through DBT are being taken so that money reaches them,” she said.

Over the next three months, each person who is covered under the National Food Security Act would get an additional 5 kg wheat or rice for free, in addition to the 5 kg of subsidised foodgrain already provided through the Public Distribution System (PDS). One kg of pulses a household would also be provided for free.

Cash transfers — a mix of advances via existing schemes and additional sums — would also be given to vulnerable groups under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana.

About three crore poor pensioners above 60 years, widows and disabled people would be given ₹1,000 in two instalments over the next three months. The 20 crore women holding Jan Dhan Yojana accounts would get ₹500 a month over the same period.

Wages were hiked under the MNREGA scheme from ₹182 to ₹202 a day. The Minister said this would provide an additional ₹2,000 per worker.