What’s behind the high numbers?

29/04/2020, RAMYA KANNAN, ,CHENNAI

The sudden near doubling of the number of cases in Tamil Nadu was unsettling for residents, who seemed to be resigned to a flattish path the epidemic seemed to be taking. Of the 121 cases, 103 were from Chennai, so far the city with the highest number of cases in the State, but also with the highest number of tests.

While some promoted the idea of the epidemic entering the “doubling” (literally what it means — double the number) phase in Tamil Nadu, the patchy results are a negation of that theory, health officials counter. The number of districts that have thrown up positive cases has come down. The dense, congested pockets of the city, are the ones consistently showing positive cases, the official added.

The simple reason must be the high number of tests being done in Chennai, epidemiologists feel. Tamil Nadu has edged up to the second slot in terms of tests conducted in the country, officials claim.

“I would insist that the good part is that we are testing extensively in Chennai, a hotspot area. The numbers will go up, but let that not bother us too much,” says P. Kuganantham, former Corporation Health Officer.

Recovery rate

The State’s recovery percentage, at nearly 55%, is among the best in the country, and well above the national average, and fatality is at about 1%. The health official claims, “On an average at any given point of time, we have 8 people who are symptomatic and maybe two people who need oxygen.” The bulk of the people are still asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, officials add.

While the focus on testing won’t lose steam, the State will examine options, such as home quarantine for mild symptoms as advised by the ICMR, and also look after vulnerable populations, in terms of prevention, testing, and treatment.