Omicron may peak in mid-Jan in US but still may strain hosps: Scientists

 Omicron may peak in mid-Jan in US but still may strain hosps: Scientists

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Azeen Ghorayshi

02.02.2022

With the news that South Africa has passed the peak of its cases caused by the Omicron variant, scientists are projecting that the United States’ sharp increase in cases will crest as soon as the middle of January.

Over the past month, the Omicron variant has spread around the world with astonishing speed. On Thursday, the US surpassed 5,80,000 cases, beating the record set only a day before. New estimates from researchers at Columbia University suggest that the US could peak by January 9 at around 2. 5 million cases per week, although that number may go as high as 5. 4 million. In New York City, the first US metropolis to see a major surge, the researchers estimated that cases would peak by the first week of the new year. “It’s shocking. It’s disturbing,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a public health researcher who led the Columbia modeling work. “We’re seeing unprecedented numbers of Covid-19 cases. ”

The variant is significantly milder than Delta and other strains and is far less likely to lead to hospitalizations, ac- cording to data from South Africa and preliminary data from Britain. Still, the enormous numbers of people getting simultaneously infected could greatly strain hospitals, experts said, especially in places with lower vaccination rates or in places where hospitals are already overburdened. Just how much of a burden the variant will be, however, depends on how quickly it will burn out in particular communities, especially in big cities.

Another model, released University of Washington last week, estimated that the US would reach a peak in cases by the end of January. But even those researchers are now rethinking their projections based on Omicron’s rapid spread. “We are realizing right now monitoring the data that the peak is going to come much faster,” said Ali Mokdad, a public health researcher at the University of Washington. “My guess is it will happen before mid-January. ”

NYT