Third Covid wave peaking three times faster than second: Experts

New Cases Up From 1,000 To 10,000 In 8 Days

New Cases Up From 1,000 To 10,000 In 8  Days

Pushpa.Narayan@timesgroup.com

09.01.2022

Chennai: The third wave is peaking at least three times faster than the second wave, health experts said here on Saturday as fresh cases in Tamil Nadu crossed the 10,000 mark.

It took just eight days for new cases to rise from about 1,000 on December 31 to 10,978 on Saturday. A similar jump took nearly a month during the second wave — from 1,087 new cases on March19, 2021, to 10,723 on April18, 2021. The peak during the first wave was 6,993 new cases on July 27, 2020, which was 57 days after fresh cases breached the fourdigit mark for the first time on May 31, 2020. “At the peak of the second wave in May 2021, we touched nearly 36,000cases a day. Experts estimate that daily cases are likely to be triple that number at the peak this time,” said health secretary J Radhakrishnan.

This means, Chennai alone, which reported 7,564 new cases at its peak on May 12, 2021, will report at least 21,000 new cases a day at the third wave peak, expected at the end of January or early February, experts said. Epidemiologists say the city is likely to touch its peak ahead of the state as its infection transmission rate is much higher than the state’s. “The city is densely populated and the virus has a higher chance of finding a new host. So it spreads faster here compared to rural areas,” said National Institute of Epidemiology deputy director Dr Prabhdeep Kaur.

Four days ago, the city reported 1,489 new cases and on Saturday it had 5,098. During the second wave, it took 28 days for daily fresh cases to go from 1,083 on April 1, 2021 to 5,445 on April 29, 2021. “This week when people from the city travel to their home districts for Pongal holidays, they are likely to take the infection back into the rural areas,” said infectious disease expert Dr Subramanian Swaminathan. “We saw it happen in March 2020 when people travelled from the city to their homes in the districts when the state imposed a lockdown,” he said.

Earlier, health secretary J Radhakrishnan said if Covid rules are violated and cases rise, the state will have no option but to go for a complete lockdown.

Health minister Ma Subramanian said the state has directed all district collectors to enforce pandemic protocols, enhance fever surveillance and testing, and ensure all close contacts are tracked. “While health workers will be working to prevent the spread, we may not see results unless people wear masks, maintain social distance, avoid going out and vaccinate,” he said. The state has capacity to increase testing to 3 lakh a day.

Chennai crosses 5,000 cases on Saturday

Fresh cases of Covid-19, fueled by the Omicron variant, pushed the active cases in the state by nearly four times in five days on Saturday, when Tamil Nadu added 10,978 cases to it registry. The state now has 40,260 patients in isolation compared to 10,364 on January 3.

At the infection epicentreChennai, 5,098 new cases were reported. Nearly five times more people are under treatment for the viral infection (20,369) compared to 4,259 five days ago. Nevertheless, the overall percentage of people admitted to hospital patients from the active registry has dropped both in the state and city. On Saturday, 14% of the active patients (5,529) of them and 11% of active patients in the city (2,324) were in hospitals. “In absolute numbers this is higher than what we had three days ago. Experts have warned us that as numbers increase exponentially hospitals will be overcrowded,” said director of public health Dr TS Selvavinayagam. The state, he said, has been encouraging most people – who have completed two doses of the vaccine, are healthy patients with no symptoms to remain in home isolation after consulting their doctors. They can come out of isolation if they do not have symptoms for three days. “We reserve hospital beds only for those with complications and severe disease,” he said.

On Saturday, all districts reported new cases and 34 out of 38 districts reported an increase in their daily tally compared to Friday. The sharpest increase was reported from Chennai, which reported 4,531 new cases on Friday, followed by Chengalpet and Coimbatore. After Chennai, Chengalpet (1,332) reported the highest number of cases followed by Tiruvallur (591) and Coimbatore (585). At least 15 districts reported cases in three digits and an equal number of districts reported cases below 50.

Of the 10 deaths in the state, Chennai reported six followed by two each in Chengalpet and Kancheepuram.

TNN