Huge spike in cases likely in Mumbai: Central panel

22/04/2020

“We are taking the projections with a pinch of salt even as we do not wish to discard them completely. The response of the State is now scaled up keeping in mind these numbers. Overall, the basis of using a Doubling Rate of 3.8 days has been questioned by us and not factoring in discharge patients and our methods of isolating high risk patients while drawing these projections,” said a senior Maharashtra bureaucrat.

Several models

A senior State health official told The Hindu that several models were being used for projections of COVID-19 cases to gauge Maharashtra’s preparedness based on these projections.

“All the models have derived varied results. Some predicted at least a lakh cases over the next few weeks while some have predicted a staggering explosion with several lakh of cases,” said the official, adding that some of the figures seemed exaggerated and misleading.

“The State, as well as the Centre, is equally puzzled. We are all confused about which estimate to go by. However, it was decided to take a slightly higher projection and work on those statistics in order to be better prepared rather than being under-prepared,” he said.

The official also said the Government of India has now made its own tool that is currently being used in Maharashtra. “We are already in the process of carrying out a gap analysis based on the projections made by the new tool,” he said.

Epicentre of outbreak

Mumbai, which has become the epicentre of the outbreak with the highest number of cases and deaths, is the State’s biggest concern.

Of the 5,218 cases recorded in Maharashtra, 66% were in Mumbai alone. The city also contributed to 60% of the 251 deaths in the State.

The decision to convert the tertiary care Nair Hospital, attached to a medical college, into a COVID-19 facility taking large empty areas and converting them in quarantine facilities have all stemmed from anticipating the worst.

“We are preparing for the worse as Mumbai continues to be at the peak. The city’s density poses a challenge,” said a doctor who is on the newly formed task force by the government.