Virus will peak in Chennai by Oct and taper: Research

Virus will peak in Chennai by Oct and taper: Research

But You Can Help Flatten Curve Sooner

U.Tejonmayam@timesgroup.com

Chennai: 23.06.2020

The coronovirus pandemic will peak in Chennai some time in October and three weeks to a month later in the rest of the state. The pandemic will start to decline in Chennai two weeks after the peak. These are the latest projections by researchers from The Tamil Nadu Dr MGR Medical University.

But the flattening of the curve depends on the people, as there may be a second rise in cases if measures such as mask wearing, social distancing and hand hygiene are not followed.

The ongoing 12-day lockdown in Chennai and neighbouring districts may slow down the spread and further delay the peak by two to three weeks, to late-October or early November, the researchers said.

In the coming weeks, experts said several districts will begin reporting more cases as projections indicate Tamil Nadu is likely to record 2.7 lakh cases by mid-July with around 60% in Chennai.

According to a forecast by Dr Srinivas and Dr Sudha Seshayyan, Chennai is expected to record around 71,000 cases by June-end and the numbers are likely to more than double to 1.5 lakh cases by July 15.

State likely to see 2.76L Covid cases by mid-July

With the city accounting for nearly 55% to 60% of the cases, Tamil Nadu is likely to see 1.2 lakh cases by June end and 2.76 lakh by mid-July. The projections also indicate that deaths will nearly double in Chennai to 1,654 by July 15 , while the state will have around four times the present number at 3,072 by mid-July.

“As of now in Chennai, it appears like it will start downslope or may flatten as a plateau after the peak. As for the rest of the state, different places will have different peaks depending on the level of exposure of the population to the virus, the population density and other factors,” said Dr Sudha Seshayyan, vice-chancellor, The Tamil Nadu Dr MGR Medical University.

Dr G Srinivas, head of department of epidemiology, said at least 60% of the state population has to get exposed either to the live virus or the vaccine virus before we could expect a decline in cases. However, he said, world over many countries have recorded the falling of the curve after five to 10% of the population got exposed to the virus. “Once the cases reach their peak, they will start falling in a few weeks and flatten. But if people do not follow the measures to protect themselves, then there will again be a transmission. The unexposed population will get exposed to the virus and that will accelerate the spread,” he said. “Community role is very important. They have to be accountable and responsible. They must avoid pre-pandemic behaviour and wear masks, follow hand hygiene and maintain physical distance,” he added.

Virologist Dr T Jacob John said the disease will spread and more cases will be reported in the districts, including small towns and rural pockets, in the coming weeks. The spread will be as fast as in the urban areas. But measures such as wearing masks, educating people on behaviour modification and teaching medical practitioners on clinical diagnosis of Covid-19 before confirming it through lab tests could slow down the spread, while protecting senior citizens and people with co-morbidity could reduce mortality.

“It is mainly because people are out in the streets and mingle more in the rural areas,” he said. “Making social interaction safe by wearing a mask is the sensible way moving forward especially in rural areas. But somebody has to teach them that,” he added.

Epidemiologist Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil said the peak is inevitable and lockdown measures could only slow down and delay the peak. He said the effects of lockdown will be seen in a week or 10 days. “Whether the curve is going to be steep or flatten, in my view herd immunity level will be reached either way. One will take a long time and the other short. A very sharp increase in cases also will be difficult because hospitals will get crowded,” he said.

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