Restarting schools unlikely to trigger surges: Experts

Restarting schools unlikely to trigger surges: Experts

Umesh.Isalkar@timesgroup.com

Pune:16.11.2020

Experts tracking Covid’s spread in the Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR) have said that reopening of schools is unlikely to cause a surge in cases.

They cited data from sero surveys in the PMR, which shows adolescents between 12 and 17 years of age had the second-highest antibody prevalence (35%) after the age group of 51 to 65 (35.5%), meaning the young have had substantial contact with the virus already.

A vaccine, the experts said, is also unlikely to have a major link with reopening of schools as according to global consensus, children could be the last to receive any Covid-19 inoculation. Even for healthy adults, vaccination is at least a year (or more) away due to prioritization.

The experts were reacting to reports that said parents were increasingly hesitant to send children back to school until there was a vaccine in circulation.

“We are not preventing infection in children by closing schools,” said epidemiologist Amitav Banerjee. “This is evident from the results of the Pimpri Chinchwad sero survey which found that scores of adolescents unwittingly contracted the virus and have recovered from it.”

He added, “So since this antibody study has shown that children are already on the same level of immunity as the general population, the reopening of schools will not cause a resurgence of infection in the community.”

Banerjee said the health ministry’s messaging during the pandemic’s early phases had sparked fear among parents. “These initial briefings implied that children were at high risk. But they were not based on evidence. The next eight months showed that the virus hasn’t impacted children much.”

Social scientist and anthropologist Aarti Nagarkar, however, cited a recent ICMR observation that stated children could act as silent spreaders. “In another study, Indian researchers studying data from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, found that children and young adults are efficient spreaders within households, especially in resourcelimited settings. So we have to be careful while reopening schools,” Nagarkar said.

But some experts cited contact-tracing data that suggests children are less likely to be the main transmitters.

Most countries, based on evidence gathered so far, opened primary and lower classes first with no impact on transmission levels in their immediate communities.