3rd wave could be less severe than 2nd one: ICMR’s Panda

3rd wave could be less severe than 2nd one: ICMR’s Panda

Nisha.Nambiar@timesgroup.com

Pune:30.08.2021

With recent projections that the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic could hit anytime between September and October, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) projects that it could be less severe than the recent second wave.

Dr Samiran Panda, head of ICMR’s Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases (ECD) division, said that nobody can predict the third wave for the whole country. “It will now make sense only if district or state-specific data are used for specific projections. The wave may rear its head only if states remove restrictions prematurely and there is a new transmission-efficient variant that could in turn cause a huge increase in caseload, or there is clear violation of Covid protocols at the population level,” Dr Panda said.

He further said the factors important for a wave are decline in natural or vaccine-induced immunity, emergence of a new, more virulent variant such as Delta, relaxations without Covid-appropriate behaviour or inadequate vaccine coverage. “Districts where the spread was low during the second wave might register an increase of cases this time, whereas districts that reported high infection rate may not witness high cases,” he said.