Heat may slow down virus, but early summer unlikely

Amit.Bhattacharya@timesgroup.com

New Delhi:27.03.2020

Many Indians have been praying for an early onset of peak summer this year in the light of some studies that have shown that transmission of Covid-19 infections may slow down in high heat. That hope may be dashed, with Met department forecasts showing the chances of summer setting in early are low. Temperatures across most of India are likely to remain below normal at least over the next two weeks, the India Meteorological Department’s extended range forecast reveals.

The forecast, which gives weekly outlooks for the next 28 days, shows that the probability of the mercury hitting 40°C, even in central India, are low till the second week of April.

“Several parts of north and central India are likely to get rain over the next two-three days under the influence of very active back-to-back western disturbances (WDs). Again, next week, some rain is expected in north India, particularly over the Himalayas,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head of IMD. He added that temperatures aren’t expected to rise significantly over most parts of India over the next two weeks or so.

“Currently, we see the influence of northerly winds right down to latitudes where Mumbai is located. These are relatively cool winds which, along with the rainfall, are likely to prevent temperatures from rising. However, in south India, thunderstorms are beginning to show up, which is a sign of rising heat,” he said.

A recent analysis by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology had shown that coronavirus infections may transmit at a slower rate in places where the weather is hot.In general, the high summer period in India sees the least number of virus infections.

According to the extended range forecast for the March 26 to April 9 period, temperatures in all four regions of the country are expected to be below the climatological values (normal).

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