Chennai may reach over 19,000 daily COVID cases by mid-May, shows epidemiologist's model

Chennai may reach over 19,000 daily COVID cases by mid-May, shows epidemiologist's model

On Friday, Chennai reported 3,842 cases and 37 deaths. There were 31,170 active cases in the city and beds in all COVID-19 treatment hospitals are fast filling.

Published: 23rd April 2021 08:30 PM |

By Express News Service

CHENNAI: Chennai may reach over 19,000 daily COVID-19 cases by mid-May at the current Rt value of 1.3, a model by an epidemiologist at the National Institute of Epidemiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, showed.

The Rt value indicates the average number of people that one person with COVID-19 is expected to infect. The current Rt in Chennai is 1.3 -- that is one person is expected to infect 1.3 others.

The projections made by S Manikanda Nesan, Epidemiologist, National Institute of Epidemiology, ICMR based on an Rt of 1.3 suggested that by May 15, Chennai may report 19,141 COVID-19 cases daily.

"On 5 May the daily cases may be 9,652 and by 25 April 4,860 cases. Is it a scary tale ahead for Chennai?" asked Manikanda Nesan, sharing his projections on Twitter on Friday. He also said the health system cannot cope with the burden.

"This projection is based on current Rt. More vaccination will definitely bring down Rt and that's exactly what we all really wish for," Manikanda Nesan said.