4L cases for 4th day, 2nd wave may be peaking

4L cases for 4th day, 2nd wave may be peaking

Amit.Bhattacharya@timesgroup.com

09.05.2021

Even as India recorded more than four lakh fresh Covid cases for the fourth day running on Saturday and over 4,000 deaths for the second consecutive day, there were early signs in the data that the devastating second wave in the country could be reaching its peak.

For the first time since the beginning of the second wave in mid-February, the seven-day rolling average of daily cases dipped on Friday. The dip was negligible, just a drop of 118 cases out of the day’s total average of more than 3.9 lakh. But it indicated a distinct slowing down in the growth of daily cases over the past week.

The seven-day average stood at 3,91,263 on Saturday, having risen by 20,117 in the past week. The slowdown was evident when one compared this with a growth of 61,173 cases in the previous seven days (April 24-May 1), and a rise of 1,06,024 in the week before (April 17-24). While the curve is bending, the trend needs to continue into the next week before a more definitive statement can be made about the country having reached the peak of the second wave.

Active Covid cases stood at over 37.8 lakh on Saturday

There were several uncertainties around that. For one, the positivity rate in the country was still high and increasing. India recorded a positivity rate of 22% the past three days, up from 21% recorded on the same three days last week. Cases were still surging in several states of the country, led by Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh in the south, Assam and Bengal in the east and Uttarakhand, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and J&K in the north.

Besides, the growth in cases remained higher than the national average in states such as Rajasthan and Bihar.

On the positive side, Maharashtra was showing a drop in weekly cases while there was a distinct slowdown in other big Covidhit states such as Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

On Saturday, India recorded 4,01,012 fresh cases. This was the fourth straight day of 4-lakh-plus daily infections in the country. However, the numbers have declined marginally over the past two days after hitting a peak of 4,14,554 on Thursday.

Deaths continued to surge with 4,135 fatalities reported on Saturday, nearly as high as the previous day’s record toll of 4,187. Active cases in the country continued to rise, although the growth rate had slowed over the past week. On Saturday, the count of active cases stood at over 37.8 lakh.