COVID-19 cases could rise next year: expert

COVID-19 cases could rise next year: expert

The nature of Omicron mutations suggests increased efficiency of infection and evasion of antibodies

11/12/2021

The Hindu

There have been many calls for India to devise a policy for booster doses.

SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT NEW DELHI

Coronavirus cases in India are expected to rise by early next year following the experience of Israel and the United Kingdom (U.K.) with the Omicron variant, an expert said at an online discussion on Friday organised by the Ashoka University, Sonepat, Haryana.

India is currently adding a little under 10,000 cases a day and has about 88,000 active cases.

Omicron cases in the U.K. could exceed 1 million by the end of the month on the current trajectory, U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said this week in a statement delivered to the House of Commons.

The online discussion was between Shahid Jameel, Director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University and Gautam Menon, Professor of Physics and Biology, Ashoka University.

“Before the emergence of the troubling variant of SARS-CoV-2 named Omicron, it was expected that people in India may be able to return to a life similar to pre-pandemic days by early next year, but this possibility now seems distant,” said Dr. Jameel. “The nature of Omicron mutations suggests increased efficiency of infection, transmission and evasion of antibodies and interferon, an early innate antiviral response.” Early lab results from South Africa and Pfizer show a 40-fold and 25-fold drop in virus neutralisation ability of the Pfizer vaccine.

According to various studies, booster shots have shown to increase the number of antibodies and cut reinfection rates. Given these results, it is now time that India devises policies on booster shots and vaccination for children, Dr. Jameel added. “The news of emergence of the new Omicron variant from South Africa is worrying. We will know more in the coming weeks, but what we know so far is that this variant spreads more efficiently and can evade immunity even from an earlier infection of COVID-19 and vaccination.

“There are some positive indications, such as the severity of the illness being possibly less than that caused by Delta variant, but this requires confirmation. In India, it is essential for us to now step up the vaccination programme to vaccinate around 15% of India’s totally unvaccinated adults and also administer the second dose to the remaining population,” Dr. Jameel said.