‘Without curbs, virus cases can hit lakhs’

KSDMA for strict post-lockdown steps

10/04/2020, TIKI RAJWI,THIRUVANANTHAPURAM

The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) has recommended active intervention, including stringent screening at State borders, long-term physical distancing strategies and effective quarantining, to forestall an unmanageable spike in COVID-19 cases in post-lockdown Kerala.

If there is no intervention whatsoever when the lockdown is lifted on April 14, hospitalisation in the State can peak in the range of 4.8 lakh to 8.2 lakh cases between June-end and July-end this year, according to the statistical models created by an eight-member KSDMA team. The possible scenarios were presented before Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Thursday.

In a scenario where break-the-chain measures, physical distancing or quarantining are wholly absent, symptomatic cases can peak at 48 lakh cases, hospitalisation at 4.8 lakh, and ICU admissions at 36,000 by July-end if the infection is in the ‘low spread’ category.

If the infection spreads at a medium pace, by the beginning of July symptomatic cases can peak at 65 lakh, hospitalisations at 6.5 lakh, and ICU cases at 49,000. Given a worst-case scenario where the spread is severe, the State can have a situation on hand by June-end with 82 lakh symptomatic cases, 8.2 lakh hospitalisations, and 62,000 ICU admissions.

The total hospital bed capacity of 1,30,550 and ICU capacity of 8,693 in the State have been factored in to arrive at conclusions.

In a no-intervention, ‘low spread’ situation, hospitals will reach their tipping point by June-end this year, and by the second week of June in a ‘medium spread’ projection. On the other hand, given a severe spread of the infection, hospitals will reach the tipping point by as early as May-end.

The KSDMA modelling suggests four ways to counter this: stringent screening at State borders, active break-the-chain measures such as use of masks, long-term physical distancing strategies and contact tracing, and quarantining.

And what if the intervention combines all these measures? In such a scenario, symptomatic cases, hospitalisation, and ICU admissions will peak at 20,000, 2,000, and 200 respectively by April 2021 in a medium-spread scenario.