Tamil Nadu: Stay home or 1 lakh could be in hospital

TNN | Mar 26, 2020, 04.07 AM IST

CHENNAI: We will have to pay a heavy price for violating the Covid curfew. A mathematical model has predicted that up to 60,000 people may land up in hospitals across Tamil Nadu when the disease peaks in May and that is the best case scenario, say officials in the state Covid-19 control room. In the worst case, the number may touch one lakh.

The numbers are approximate, based on the model prepared by the Centre For Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy (CDDEP) in association with the Johns Hopkins. “They have estimated the scenarios for Kerala, Karnataka, UP, Telangana and Delhi. We are using a rough calculation and taking a number between Telangana and Maharashtra,” said a senior health official.

On Wednesday, Telangana, which has a population of 39.64 million, recorded 39 cases, while Maharashtra, with a population of 126 million, had 107. TN, with 81.5 million people, had 18 covid-19 positive cases. The analysis showed that India might end up with 13 crore to 25 crore Covid-19 infections – symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalization -- and between 12 lakh and 25 lakh people may require hospitalisation. “We have asked them for an exclusive report for Tamil Nadu,” said health secretary Beela Rajesh. Other recommendations in the report will stay valid, officials said. The report says most infected cases will be mild. Infections will peak between April and May, when the most number of people will be hospitalised.

Government and private hospitals have been asked to increase bed strength, and district collectors and civic bodies to identify buildings that can be used for isolation and quarantine. Hospitals have been asked to drastically cut patient service and elective surgeries.

The CDDEP guidance report on COVID-19 in India is based on evidence from the India SIM Model – an agent-based model of the Indian population. Scientists fitted the model to available data from China and Italy under three scenarios –high, moderate and low infection.

National containment, it says, may no longer be an option for India, as community transmission of the virus most likely started in early March. “However, state or local (temporary) containment and mitigation is the best option,” it said. Tamil Nadu has found contacts of people who have travelled abroad being infected. Health minister C Vijayabaskar says they are doing their best to stop community transmission of the disease. Experts point out that social distancing can reduce this peak load by as much as 75% although this may be hard to enforce in India, the study points out.

Encouraging early testing, it says people should follow social distancing more seriously. Director of public health Dr K Kolandasamy said disinfecting surfaces and hand hygiene should be practised along with social distancing. “This will have more impact than lockdowns,” he said.

There is also hope that increase in temperature and humidity should help us in reducing case load, although the report warns there could be multiple peaks on the graph.