‘Lockdown prevented 37,000-78,000 deaths’

Sushmi.Dey@timesgroup.com

New Delhi:  23.05.2020

Seeking to underline the benefits of the lockdown that have been questioned in some quarters, the Centre on Friday presented various models that indicated India may have averted an estimated 14-29 lakh Covid-19 cases and 37,000-78,000 deaths due to the infection.

Presenting the analysis of the first two phases of lockdown, Niti Aayog member (health) Dr V K Paul, said restrictions had significantly reduced the speed at which the virus was spreading.

“On April 3, we had 22.6% new cases per day, the behaviour of the virus was exponential. But after April 4, there was a clear slowing down and it has now settled at 5.5%,” he said. The lockdown was imposed on March 25, and Paul said it took a time lag for its effects to show up in terms of a declining rate of infection.

Besides slowing the spread of the disease, the lockdown allowed the government to line up resources in terms of health infrastructure and medical workers, increased medical supplies and gain experience in containment measures. It also shortened the wait for potential drugs, vaccines and treatment besides stepping up research, Dr Paul said.

Sharing the projections of a no-lockdown scenario, Praveen Shrivastava, secretary, ministry of statistics, planning and programme implementation, cited models including ones prepared by Boston Consulting Group, Public Health Foundation of India, independent economists and researchers as well as by the ministry itself in partnership with Indian Statistical Institute.

Full report on www.toi.in

‘Never set a date for zero cases’

Responding to the controversy over a graph presented by him during an earlier presentation regarding projection of growth rate of coronavirus infections, Niti Aayog member and chairman of the empowered committee on Covid-19 Dr V K Paul has made it clear the graph shown about a month ago did not say anywhere that cases will become “zero” by a particular date.

Dr Paul said he never made any such claim and apologised for any misunderstanding that might have arisen. TNN