Surge in cases shows likely 3rd wave in Kerala: Experts

Surge in cases shows likely 3rd wave in Kerala: Experts

More Than 50% Of The State’s Population Still Susceptible

Preetu.Nair@timesgroup.com

Kochi:3.8.2021

The number of new Coronavirus cases in Kerala is surging once again, with epidemiologists and public health experts stating that this may be the beginning of the third Covid wave in the state.

Though the state government has not officially called it the third wave, experts said that Kerala, after being in a plateau phase in the second wave, is now seeing a surge with 20,000 to 22,000 cases reported per day in the past six days, with TPR above 12%. From June 4 to the last week of July, the state saw an average of 12,000-14,000 cases a day.

“The surge indicates that it may be the beginning of the third wave and we need to be careful now. We have a large susceptible population and the government needs to come up with a long-term strategy to deal with new Covid waves,” said public health expert and epidemiologist Dr Raman Kutty. Kerala now has 51% of the total Covid cases in the country and its seven-day average daily growth rate is 0.60%, while that of the country is 0.13%.

“It is the general principle of any viral infection that there may be multiple waves when we have a susceptible population. Kerala will also see many Covid waves before the cases actually start subsiding,” said Dr A Sukumaran, former state epidemiologist, who has come out of retirement to work at Covid control room at Wayanad.

Dr Sukumaran said that during the Spanish Flu, the cases started to subside only after four waves. “But in Covid, we may see more waves as there are mutations,” he said.

In India, so far, there have been two very distinct periods of surge, separated by a prolonged lull. But it has been a different story in Kerala. During the first wave, Kerala was in a plateau phase for a long period, and then there was a surge in Covid cases in April, indicating the beginning of the second wave. In the second wave too, the state was in plateau phase for more than seven weeks and now there is a surge.

Unlike the rest of the country, now Kerala’s Covid concerns are manifold too. More than 50% of the population is still susceptible and so far, only about 17% are fully vaccinated. In July, as per CSIR Institute of Genomics & Integrative Biology’s (CSIRIGIB) Covid-19 genome surveillance, the most dominant virus in Kerala is the dangerous Delta variant (B.1.617.2), with 95% samples tested from the state showing presence of the variant. Added to this, any gene mutations in the virus needs to be identified immediately at the state level.

Health minister Veena George has acknowledged that the state has not come out of the second wave yet but will have to get prepared to meet the third wave now.