Will TN end or extend lockdown?

State Mulls Options, Looks To Centre

Pushpa Narayan & U Tejonmayam TNN

Chennai:09.04.2020

What will be the exit strategy for Tamil Nadu, which has the second highest Covid-19 positive cases in the country?

TN will wait for the Centre to announce its strategy, officials say. “We are gearing up for an extension of the lockdown with the existing rules. It’s not a final decision, but we don’t yet have a better option to push back the virus,” said a senior health official. “The second best option would be to allow a staggered relaxation. Malls, cinemas, hotels, pubs and large retail chains would continue to remain closed. Factories could operate if they were ready. Shops would open for a few hours. But they should be ready to down shutter and go through the drill if their staff test positive,” the official said. In both these scenarios, inter-district and inter-state passenger travel would be restricted.

The best case and worst case scenarios are being discussed, said a senior official. “We are looking at the epidemiology of the disease within the state, mathematical models and the behaviour of the virus in the UK, Spain and Germany,” the official said. “We do see that the lockdown has delayed the peak, but we don’t know if it will bring down the peak or flatten the curve. Mathematical models have made different predictions,” the official said.

On Tuesday, officials from the public health department suggested that they do random screening of patients with rapid kits to identify hotspots in containment zones and in areas where cases are not reported. The study, which may be done by an external agency, will help the state decide on areas where lockdown can be eased.

Even after the lockdown, a large population could still be susceptible to the virus and entry of new positive cases from across the borders could start the chain of infections again. Ronojoy Adhikari from University of Cambridge said along with lockdown and social distancing measures, extensive testing and mapping affected regions are also important. “District level testing should be started immediately. Once infection levels are down to manageable numbers, we will need to ensure that infected individuals and their contact networks are traced and quarantined” said Adhikari.

Finally, the state also has the option of allowing “staggered peaks”, though many officials instantly slammed the idea. “The idea is to open some districts to peak after protecting the vulnerable. This way the state can rush all its resources and teams to that area. Once herd immunity is achieved, we move on to the next. But this may not be ideal,” said a senior doctor.