Without lockdown, virus could’ve hit 8.2 lakh by April 15: Analysis

TIMES NEWS NETWORK

New Delhi:12.04.2020

A day after it said that there was no such ICMR study, the health ministry said on Saturday that there was a “statistical rate of growthbased analysis” that without the lockdown and containment measures, Covid-19 cases could be projected to spiral to 8.2 lakh by April 15, registering a 41% cumulative growth rate.

Though the health ministry had on Friday contradicted reports about such a study, the Centre clarified that the chart was a statistical analysis and not a report or a study. The projection, explained by Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in the health ministry, takes into account containment measures alone,withoutimplementation of the lockdown.

The statistical analysis also calculated that in a scenario without a lockdown, a total of 1.2 lakh positive cases could have been reported by April15 if the peak growth rate of the disease at 28.9% seen before the lockdown was initiated had sustained. At these rates, as of April 11, the cases could have been 2 lakh with only lockdown and around 44,000 with only containment measures, in keeping with the two projections.

Agarwal’s comments were a clear walk-backon the ministry’s position on Friday though the government did own up to the projection which it said was a statistical exercise. The clarification pointed to the need for closer coordination within the government.

In thecurrentsituation after implementation of lockdown as well as stringent containment measures, India is witnessing a significantly lower number of positive cases at 7,447 as of Saturday, Agarwal said highlighting the importance of measure and social distancing. The ministry reported 239 deaths so far. A total of 1,035 new cases and 40 deaths were reported on Friday.

LAST RITES: Medics in protective suits prepare to cremate a Covid-19 patient in Maharashtra