1 CASE, 18 MLAS, UMPTEEN POSSIBILITIES
With The Disqualification Case Verdict Expected Soon, All Sides Are Counting Their Chickens
Jayaraj.Sivan@timesgroup.com
Tamil Nadu is bracing itself for another round of political instability as the verdict of the third high court judge in the 18 AIADMK rebel MLAs’ disqualification case is expected to be out in the next few days.
The government is safe for now only if the disqualification of the rebel MLAs is upheld by the third judge. In the 234-member (excluding the nominated member) House, there are two vacancies – Tiruvarur, which was represented by M Karunanidhi and Thirupparankundram, whose MLA A K Bose died in August. In case the 18 MLAs’ disqualification is upheld, the government can survive with 107 votes and as on date, the Edappadi K Palaniswami government is assured of the support of 109 AIADMK MLAs. In case of a tie in voting, EPS can count on the speaker’s support too.
If the court sets aside the disqualification, the fate of the government would hang in the balance. As things stand now, the numbers are heavily stacked against Palaniswami. Including three more AIADMK rebels – A Prabhu, E Rathinasabhapathi and V K Kalaiselvan - who have joined the T T V Dhinakaran camp and the three alliance party MLAs – Karunas, Thamimun Ansari and U Thaniyarasu – who contested on the AIADMK symbol, the anti-EPS camp has a strength of 122 MLAs.
Though the party whip would be applicable to all those who contested and won on the AIADMK symbol - which includes the rebel MLAs too - and violation of the whip would attract disqualification of the MLAs once again, it would not help the government. Going by the possible sequence of events in the House, first the government would fall and then only disqualification of MLAs will follow.
The public utterances made by Dhinakaran and the rebel MLAs in the past, however, indicate that there is every possibility of an alternative CM candidate being propped up. “Such a transition may not be a smooth affair as Edappadi Palaniswami may not give up power easily. He is bound to sink the government before he demits office,” said one of his associates.
Also, one should not underestimate the capabilities of a government in office. Palaniswami, with the entire state police at his disposal, may not need much time to strike deals with a few rebel MLAs. Party insiders say the chief minister’s influence may not be restricted to the AIADMK camp. He has made some inroads into the opposition camp too, especially the Congress, said a senior AIADMK functionary. In case of a closely fought number game, many opposition MLAs could spring a surprise by bailing out the government, he said.
All said and done, the HC verdict is not the final word on the case. Either of the parties can go on appeal and status quo could continue.
With The Disqualification Case Verdict Expected Soon, All Sides Are Counting Their Chickens
Jayaraj.Sivan@timesgroup.com
Tamil Nadu is bracing itself for another round of political instability as the verdict of the third high court judge in the 18 AIADMK rebel MLAs’ disqualification case is expected to be out in the next few days.
The government is safe for now only if the disqualification of the rebel MLAs is upheld by the third judge. In the 234-member (excluding the nominated member) House, there are two vacancies – Tiruvarur, which was represented by M Karunanidhi and Thirupparankundram, whose MLA A K Bose died in August. In case the 18 MLAs’ disqualification is upheld, the government can survive with 107 votes and as on date, the Edappadi K Palaniswami government is assured of the support of 109 AIADMK MLAs. In case of a tie in voting, EPS can count on the speaker’s support too.
If the court sets aside the disqualification, the fate of the government would hang in the balance. As things stand now, the numbers are heavily stacked against Palaniswami. Including three more AIADMK rebels – A Prabhu, E Rathinasabhapathi and V K Kalaiselvan - who have joined the T T V Dhinakaran camp and the three alliance party MLAs – Karunas, Thamimun Ansari and U Thaniyarasu – who contested on the AIADMK symbol, the anti-EPS camp has a strength of 122 MLAs.
Though the party whip would be applicable to all those who contested and won on the AIADMK symbol - which includes the rebel MLAs too - and violation of the whip would attract disqualification of the MLAs once again, it would not help the government. Going by the possible sequence of events in the House, first the government would fall and then only disqualification of MLAs will follow.
The public utterances made by Dhinakaran and the rebel MLAs in the past, however, indicate that there is every possibility of an alternative CM candidate being propped up. “Such a transition may not be a smooth affair as Edappadi Palaniswami may not give up power easily. He is bound to sink the government before he demits office,” said one of his associates.
Also, one should not underestimate the capabilities of a government in office. Palaniswami, with the entire state police at his disposal, may not need much time to strike deals with a few rebel MLAs. Party insiders say the chief minister’s influence may not be restricted to the AIADMK camp. He has made some inroads into the opposition camp too, especially the Congress, said a senior AIADMK functionary. In case of a closely fought number game, many opposition MLAs could spring a surprise by bailing out the government, he said.
All said and done, the HC verdict is not the final word on the case. Either of the parties can go on appeal and status quo could continue.
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